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Posts Tagged ‘Dollar’

 

For a number of years US economy has enjoyed a relatively low inflation rate. According to official statements, annualized inflation over last decade or so has been in very low single digits. Depending on the source and method of calculation, the rate has been about 2%. That is despite massive infusion of funds into the economy in the form of very low interest rates.

That course of action has been long supported by US financial authorities, the FED. For years the central bank has been concerned with growth, doing everything it could to fight economic slow down and stagnation. It was done in the form of cutting interest rates and seemingly endless liquidity increase. Let’s not forget about lending hand in order to bail out large financial institutions from the masses their questionable practises created. In fact, month after month we have been treated to speeches that inflation is under control and not a threat. Until now.

Published inflation figures pertain to the so called “core inflation”, compilation of prices on consumer goods, which excludes food and energy. Runaway cost increases in oil/gas and main food commodities are finally being reflected in the number, as their effects trickle down to other areas of consumer goods. Some of the newly released figures are stunning-soaring energy costs pushed inflation up in May at the fastest pace in six months, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Labor Department. Food prices had the biggest one-month leap in 18 years in April. That’s something.

Higher energy and commodity prices also fuel inflation pressures in other parts of the world. They are being acutely felt in Asia in particular, as the region continues to function as a commodity importer/manufactured goods exporter. One way countries can offset such inflationary pressures is to allow their currencies to appreciate more rapidly. All of a sudden, within a couple of weeks, the once neglected subject of inflation has catapulted itself onto front pages.

As of this writing in mid June, finance ministers of the of the Group of Eight industrialized countries (G-8) are holding a meeting in Osaka, Japan. Main subject have been inflation causing soaring oil and food prices, which are emerging as serious threats to global economic growth. The ministers are vowing to work together to address the problem. They urged oil-producing nations to increase production to help stabilize the spike in oil prices, and called for aid to address a looming food crisis in developing nations.

In response, Saudi Arabia pledged to increase its daily output by additional 500,000 barrels a day. This is surely to stretch their capacity to an absolute maximum, but in opinions of many this decision should calm energy markets, which, by the way, do not have a shortage of supplies. The recent run up of crude oil price to new high of about $140, is likely to be the extent of the rally for some time.

Where does it leave the dollar? There is no one certain answer, but her is one very possible scenario. Inflationary pressures are likely to cause FED to halt its rate cutting policy, maybe even to start gradual rate increases. That is always appealing to Forex traders. Falling oil prices should also benefit the dollar, as record energy costs have been vilified as the single biggest force behind USD weakness (rightly or not). And one more thing, Treasury Secretary Paulson warned earlier this week that he isn’t ruling out intervening in currency markets to stabilize the currency.

So, what is the relationship between US Dollar and inflation? Under current market conditions and in light of most recent fundamental and technical developments, USD might just get a much needed bust from the much dreaded inflation. This relationship is, however, fluid and unstable. Unchecked, inflationary forces can do just the opposite some time down the road- start another Dollar slide.

The idea of starting a business is alluring to so many people.  There is the vision of wealth, providing opportunities and security.  Also there is pride and purpose- knowing what you’re doing is for you and your family.  And of course, one of the most appealing reasons is the freedom of being able to work from home and choose your own hours.  

These visions are wonderful and, in many cases, attainable.  In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, there are over 17.6 million businesses with one or more owners but no paid employees.      

So why are so many aspiring entrepreneurs left on the sidelines? 

It turns out, there are three reasons.  One, as you can imagine, is good old fashioned fear.  Fear of the unknown.  Fear of failure.  Believe it or not, fear of success.  The second reason is a lack of knowledge.  “Where do I start?” “I don’t have enough resources.”  “I don’t know anything about marketing.” And the third reason, which I will be discussing in this article, is about the business idea, itself. 

Business Idea Paralysis

What is business idea paralysis?  Quite simply, it’s a condition that prevents people from starting a business because they get held back in the idea generation stage.  Basically, they are stuck in neutral.  Below are the two most common reasons why:

 The Pet Rock Syndrome

In 1975 a gentleman named Gary Dahl created a product called the pet rock.  Many of you have probably heard of it.  In case you haven’t, it was nothing more than a rock set in a box on some straw.  Within 6 months, Dahl had sold over 5 million of these pet rocks for $3.95 each.  It cost him less than 30 cents to produce the rock.  So, when you do some basic number crunching, he made over 15 million dollars in just 6 months – selling rocks.   

What does this have to do with anything?  Well, quite a bit actually.  Imagine how much your life would change if you could sell something as simple as a rock and become a multi-millionaire in just 6 months.  Pretty tantalizing isn’t it?  Unfortunately, it has tantalized people so much that they never end up starting a business.  They only end up chasing their own “pet rock” gimmicks that never catch on.

The reason is simple.  Some people just haven’t been blessed by the idea gods.  The gods have failed to spring upon them the multi-million dollar idea that they believe they need.    No matter how hard they try to come up with the next pet rock, they can’t.  If you don’t believe me, take a look at how many get-rich-quick schemes are being sold today.  If people can’t think of the next great idea, then they will buy the idea from someone else.  Well, guess what?  It doesn’t work.  Mr. Dahl was an aberration.  He hit the winning lottery ticket.  Chances are you won’t.

After you have wiped the pet rock syndrome from your head, beware of the next, equally as paralyzing syndrome that can keep you from getting to business with real, tangible ideas. 

Peace, Love and Happiness Syndrome

On the other end of the spectrum we have the peace, love and happiness camp.  This group is a little more realistic in their pursuit of a business idea.  Their problem, however, is that they love too many business ideas.  In fact, they love them so much that they can’t decide on the best one.  They become paralyzed by trying to figure out which idea is best, and ultimately, never try any of them.

These types of people, I have found, are extremely visionary.  They love to explore all of the different business angles and long term visions.  The problem is they don’t take action because their heads are filled with amazing ideas and forecasts for success.

If you fall into this camp, I have bit of advice.  Stop it!  You need to choose an idea and then let your mind run wild within the boundaries of that idea.

How Do You Find the Right Business Idea?

There are two schools of thought on how to come up with the right business idea.  I’ll discuss them below:

The Traditional Approach

The traditional theory for finding the right business idea states that you should find a need and fill it.  In other words, you need to pay attention to your surroundings and look to see where there might be an opportunity to offer a new product or service that people may need.  Once you do, that’s what you will build your business around. 

There is no question that this method of generating business ideas work.  It has led to many great inventions and innovations over the years.   It is for this reason that pharmaceutical companies make billions of dollars.  They develop new drugs to satisfy a need, such as a heart condition.  You can also see the traditional approach at play with today’s green technologies.  New, “green” businesses are trying to fill the need for clean, renewable energy.

There is one problem with this method, however.  It can be quite expensive and time consuming.  First, you have to develop the product or service.  This includes spending a lot of time and money on market research and sampling.  Second, you have to spend a lot of money on marketing to not only introduce the product or service, but to also convince people that they really do need it. 

If you’re a typical entrepreneur with limited funds and expertise, this may not be the best method of generating business ideas. 

The Give Them What They Want Approach

There is a second school of thought about coming up with a business idea that in many ways is far less risky and is much less expensive.  This theory is based on the idea that you should come up with an idea that already exists.  Or, simply put, offer people a product or service that they are already buying. 

Wait a minute, you may say, but doesn’t that mean there is more competition?  Isn’t the market already saturated?   Um, I would reply, tell that to Netflix. 

In 1997 the originator of Netflix reportedly hit upon the idea for movie rental-by-mail when he was forced to pay $40 in fines after returning an overdue videotape of the film Apollo 13.  Renting movies was not a new business “need” that needed to be satisfied.  In fact, Blockbuster had been renting movies for over 10 years, and in 1998 had served nearly 60 million people who rented more than 970 million movies and video games.  Netflix took a proven market (movie rentals) and simply enhanced the service by offering movie rentals by mail, with no late fees.  The result:  today, Netflix has over 10 million monthly subscribers while generating  an annual revenue of over 1 billion dollars.  Blockbuster, on the other hand, is struggling to stay afloat. 

The point is that if you know what people are buying, a good business idea is nothing more than simply enhancing the product or service and/or marketing message.  It’s a lot less risky and more often than not, a lot less expensive.